PREVIEW
This does not bode well.
North Carolina, led by the top offense (89.9 points a game) in the conference, is outscoring teams by an average of 21.2 points a game. The Tar Heels lead the ACC in shooting (.506), three-point percentage (.408) and assists (20.3).
Meanwhile, the Terps are second to last in the ACC in defense, allowing 75.8 points a game. Last year, the Terps' perimeter and transition defense was maligned at times, yet they were holding teams to 72 points.
However, one of the reasons Carolina shoots so well is Raymond Felton's ability to compromise a defense off the dribble. Carolina has a roster filled with good open floor shooters. But if they are forced to put the ball on the floor before shooting... who knows? So,
what's at stake?
Could Maryland, now 16-9, receive an at-large bid with a record of 16-12? Yes, it's possible. But the Terrapins would be crazy to bank on it, especially since a loss to Virginia Tech, with an RPI of 100, would drop Maryland's own RPI. While a loss today doesn't torpedo Maryland, a victory over North Carolina would put the Terrapins into the tournament for certain.
Win today and Maryland can relax against Virginia Tech. Lose today and the season may ride on their ability to win on the road in Blacksburg next weekend.
CAROLINA
Rashad McCants
didn't travel to Maryland. We send out our best wishes for a full, complete and speedy recovery that occurs just after next Sunday's Duke-Carolina matchup. (
What about Ed? -- Editor. He probably roots for a quicker recovery. -- Birkel) After making 90 consecutive starts, Carolina will miss his presence for the second straight game.
Next year's team will be deeper (if everybody returns) due to their
three McDonald's All-American recruits (Duke has three too.) and might be able to sustain a high level of play without a superstar. But one must question if this Carolina team is deep enough to win against good competition if their best, if least consistent, player remains incapacitated. True, they didn't have many problems "
cutting the heart out"
of that team in Raleigh without McCants but the only similarity with this weekend's opponent is jersey color.
How to Defend Carolina
(1) Stop Sean May.
Sean May does not have a go-to move. He doesn't have the 16 footer off the window (Duncan) or the Dream Shake. He doesn't have the turnaround jumper from the low block (Jordan) or the jump hook (Alonzo) to get a guaranteed two. However he's big, strong and active around the basket. A good defender who can keep May in the eight to ten foot range and off the backboards could keep May quiet on the offensive end. Such defenders are difficult to find and I haven't been able to find one on Maryland's roster. But somebody needs to step forward and get it done. Is Ibekwe ready to deliver a 40 minute defensive virtuoso performance? And can his teammates help him in a team defense concept?
(2) Force Jackie Manuel, David Noel, Jawad Williams and Marvin Williams to hit jumpers with guys in their faces.
Marvin's physicality makes him a difficult matchup. He's big enough to punish small defenders and too quick for many big guys. All Carolina's mediums (as opposed to bigs and smalls) run the break. But each of them is fairly one dimensional. Jackie Manuel is a hustler with a limited offensive repertoire. Marvin Williams gets most of his points by running out on the break. Noel and Jawad Williams are solid contributors who can't be expected to win games against top-tier talent.
(3) Allow Raymond Felton to shoot but not Melvin Scott
Raymond Felton is best when he's making others better. Although his shooting percentage has increased markedly from last year he has to
make me believe it. And if Felton beats opponents with jumpers then they just have to take their medicine. Melvin Scott, on the other hand, cannot be allowed to get open looks. With 138 threes in the record book, Scott has demonstrated his value to the 'Heels as a long range shooter. But he's not going to beat you to the rim consistently like Felton. So, in summation, back off Felton and play Scott up close.
(4) Cross your fingers
What else can you do? Carolina can go through mental lapses but has enough depth that it's unlikely the entire team will have have an off night. Therefore defensive rebounding is a key. If Carolina has a bad night you can't let them have second shots to get back on track. Without McCants nobody on the Carolina's roster can get their own shot with any consistency. But the team that can excuse the Basketblog's plan has to have incredible discipline. Other than Illinois I haven't seen a truly disciplined college basketball team this season.
MARYLAND
First order of business: Mike Grinnon and Darien Harry will be honored on Maryland's
senior night. It's the last home game of the season and we at the ACC BasketBlog doff our hats to guys who had to practice every day but never gained the spotlight. We hope Henry recovers well from his earlier knee surgery. We at the BasketBlog understand those difficulties all too well. Perhaps being the only player in Maryland basketball history to claim an NCAA championship and an ACC tournament championship will continue to speed his recovery.
Can Maryland win by outhustling Carolina? Some have
questioned Carolina's desire to scrap for every loose ball. To hustle in the tough games that will mark them as a great team. Don't count
Gary Williams among those questioning UNC's hustle. Maryland will have to win every loose ball if they plan to win because they're just not as deep or talented at Carolina.
Maryland sits at #36 in the most recent RPI. (And yes, I know the RPI has many detractors. So what? If that's what the NCAA Selection Committee uses that's the one that deserves attention. Deal.) That means they could really use this win to guarantee an NCAA tourney selection. However, because Virginia Tech looms as the last game of the season, the Terrapins don't need to feel extraordinary pressure to make Carolina Gary Williams' 16th top-5 ranked victim. A good loss in a regionally televised game (How many of the NCAA selectors will see this one?) won't mean much if Maryland can beat Virginia Tech for its eighth league win.
That said, this Terps team should be loose and ready to protect its home court. But what are the odds that this Maryland team can avenge its earlier loss at the Dean Dome? Well consider the fact that the Terps have played four teams twice. They've swept two of them (including Duke,
natch) and been swept by the other two (including Clemson). (
link) That pattern doesn't bode well for this weekend's rematch with the boys in baby blue. I just hope Jeremy doesn't
internally combust at halftime of this game like he did during the Clemson game.
So, there is little evidence that this Maryland team is able to change its style. If it is unable to adapt, Maryland will need a spectacularly good shooting game. That is not the sort of chance on which to depend. Even Nik Caner-Medley's 19.3 point per game average over the last 13 games does not enough confidence instill. Carolina must pay NKM special attention but they have the length and young, fresh legs to guard him closely.
Without BasketBlog fav NKM doing the damage, one really must question how Maryland will score enough to push Carolina. Is it possible that
Mike's favorite guard, John Gilchrist, can focus his considerable talent and carry his team. If he thinks "it's just a game" we at the BasketBlog cannot imagine his doing so.
If they can't adapt at home with an NCAA tournament selection in the offing, I'm not sure this team will make any noise in March. No sign points to a Maryland win. Even Coach Gary Williams is frustrated by his team's
inconsistent defense. But expect a "good loss." This game will be close enough in the second half to give false hope to Maryland fans. But expect Carolina to extend the lead in the final minutes and win comfortably.
OTHER
It appears a
Maryland assistant coach is going to take the University of Vermont
head coaching job after the season. I hope he gets the Board of Regents to
change their mascot's name in short order. Thank you.
UPDATE: Manuel's name fixed. Webster does not play for the 'Heels.